Exclusive – Abdalaziz Alhamza “RBSS”
ISIS put the finishing touches on the ongoing preparations to launch a military operation just before the truce sponsored by the United States and Russia and as is well known ISIS and Alnosra Front were excluded from it, and the leaks indicate that known by the “Raqqa is being slaughtered silently” that the talk was going on among ISIS about an announced a new plan aimed to control of the strategic region and re-activate its motto (remain and expands), and this seems to be imminent move that aims to achieve several objectives:
ISIS are not fluent in defense of the areas controlled by them well, and are often forced to withdraw under the weight of intense aerial bombardment waged by the International collation as a cover for the troops that are attacking ISIS on the ground, such as what happened in the countryside of Raqqa and the northern Hasaka and Alramadi, and it seems that ISIS began to draw lessons from the repeated defeats in recent times, where they have become aware that they excel in the attack by relying on suicidal and blowing up booby-trapped vehicles, who are considered the backbone of the military tactics, while hunkering down trenches and repel the attacking forces policy are a great weakness point of ISIS which seemed clear and evident in the recent battles fought in the southern countryside of Aleppo (Khanasser).
Based on the foregoing, ISIS were intended to launch a pre-emptive military operation is primarily aimed to the defense of his control in the eastern Aleppo countryside and the area of Altabqa, through progress and control of new areas to form new defensive belt at the areas controlled by them previously, in accordance with the principle of “the best way to defend … the attack, “the attack will not provide him with a new areas and belt buffer, but also will dispersal the attacking forces concentration and distract them in a new and far relatively areas from its strongholds and the areas of their control, and it seems that the military operation carried out by ISIS in the city of Tel Abyad during the last days comes within this context and thinking.
As noted above, the talk among ISIS about the intention to attack and control on strategically important area – mostly in Syria – in order to distract the Russians and Americans alike in this new battle, given the map of the presence of ISIS in Syria with a simple analysis depending on the boot which retold earlier, ISIS will proceed to attack one of the following three areas:
A- Alsalamia city in the eastern countryside of Hama, which is a very important strategic point on the only supply road for the regime between areas controlled by in the northern and central and southern Syria, as the importance of this city on the other side through the sectarian dimension and demographic composition, where the city is home to the majority of Ismaili, one of the communities that are small minorities in Syria and considered by ISIS as a group of infidels and apostates from the religion of Islam, and it seems that if this operation will be successful it will be a coup for ISIS at this particular time, Apart from military and strategic dimension of the city, ISIS will succeed in spreading panic among the regional and international forces of a repeat the scenario of what happened in Sinjar in Iraq and what they did to the people at that time.
Returning to the military dimension, the attack on the city is not impossible and forces ISIS are not far from it, and this attack will secure to ISIS several goals. First distract of all the players, including the Syrian regime, which will focus heavily in order to protect nearby Alawite villages and adjoining it, as well as his unwillingness to miss such an opportunity, which gives him the possibility of appearing as a protector of minorities in the region, as well as distract the aviation of the international collation of that battle and thus spoiling the plans and disrupt preparations for progress toward Raqqa over that area and make it fail or delay to later at least.
B- the city of Azaz in the north countryside of Aleppo on the Turkish border and the rest of the areas that are still, however under the control of the armed opposition groups, which are fighting on two fronts in the same region, one against the regime and the militias loyal to him and the other against the Kurdish protection units and militias loyal to it also, the opposition is at weakest situations for now because they will not be able to survive long on three fronts mentioned.
ISIS in turn will not miss such an opportunity that will achieved a number of goals and gains first extend its control over new border area of precision and significance, as well as to embarrass the Turkish side, which proclaims repeatedly expressed its seriousness in fighting ISIS, which will be again very close to its South borders, as well as to embarrass the Russians in terms of the possibility of bombing the area due to its proximity to the Turkish border and approached the areas where armed Kurdish militants, and thus will be the only solution to face ISIS is to support the Kurdish fighters in the storming of the region which opposes by Turkey certainly Ultimately, ISIS will benefit from playing on the contradictions and differences between the various players in the region.
C- the city of Deir Elzor, which ISIS had several attempts to control it all ended in failure, so ISIS will exploit the doubts of the regime for his ability to repeat the attack on the city because of the heavy losses suffered in previous times, but these attempts and in spite of their failure, they contributed to the weakening of the forces of regime and depleted significantly, as well as fatigue the civilian because of the state of siege imposed by ISIS on the city several months ago.
And the city in the case of controlling it will be valuable hunting for ISISbecause of the large quantities of arms which are located inside of it, as well as distracting the Russian aviation and the International collation aviation in a long battle, in order to deflect efforts away from the safe strongholds of ISIS.
D- tickle the northern countryside of Raqqa and Ras Elain and the Ain Arab almost daily by suicidal and similar operations to those recent that happened in Tel Abyad and its countryside, which is not over despite the passage of 72 hours at its start, as well as the continued control of ISIS on a group of villages with a few of the fighters and distracting fly to prosecute each member separately, and prove the failure of the theory of safety in areas which ISIS get out of it, on the other hand to keep the civilians in the province of Raqqa human shields because they could not get out to the north toward the Kurdish-controlled areas because of the absence of the safety factor, and the south, where civilians do not want to go to the regime control areas as a result of their lack of confidence in his behavior and reaction to them.
Gain the confidence of civilians and reviving the idea of ISIS who are invincible and that his state remain in spite of all the difficulties and challenges, which began to fade in recent times where the talk among the public that the days of ISIS are numbered and out of Raqqa and Mosul, of his control is only a matter of time, which has been greatly enhanced in the wake after the losses of ISIS in Hasakah and its countryside.
But ISIS are trying on the other hand benefit from the losses, through the provision of motivation among the parents of fighters who laid their lives in the battles for more support and popular rallying around them one hand, and open new doors to recruit new fighters motivated by revenge from the other hand, the matter which ISIS worked on exploit it and benefit from it significantly after end of the fighting in Ain Arab (Kobani), in which they lost hundreds of his fighters but gain in return numbers to double as a result of the factors that we have just mentioned.
Attracting the most extreme members among other radical organizations such as Alnosra front and Al-Aqsa soldier to ISIS that are fighting and not known the remission to fight the infidels as they claimed, thus weakening those factions and additional increase in their strength and a possible to increase in the controlled areas without a fight through pledge of allegiance of those groups, which it is unlikely that the combinations of these factions to join the ranks of ISIS because they have not shown any comment about ISIS behavior as well as the lack of participation in any fight against ISIS in previous periods.
All these factors will lead to the rise of ISIS star and the increasing of their human military capabilities and attract more fighters to its ranks what looked like a snowball movement that will not stop at the borders of extremist fighters, but also can be violated to the various factions facing that fighting the regime and the sectarian militias and ethnic loyal to him, in the under an atmosphere of despair and feeling disappointed and abandoned by some international parties that used to be a friend to them yesterday and today this friend is supporting the new enemies.